当前位置:首页 > 财经 > 正文

震荡加剧对股市的影响英语(震荡加剧对股市的影响英语怎么说)

  • 财经
  • 2023-03-27
  • 94
  • 更新:2023-03-27 14:00:59

本文目录一览:

历次美联储加息对股市的影响有哪些

美联储加息对A股影响并没有很强的关联性,A股依然按照自身规律运行。实际上,中国股市由于历来是内因起到决定性作用,因此美联储的缩表,对中国股市的影响有限。可以这么说吧,美国加息对中国股市短期影响显著,长期影响并不明显。

第一轮加息1982-1984,美联储的基准利率从8.5%上调至11.5%。

加息之前的 1981 年,美国的通胀率已达 13.5%,接近超级通胀,经过加息到了1983年美国的通胀率已经下降到4%以下。加息将超级通胀完全转嫁给拉美国家,让七十年代就进入中等收入国家序列的拉美诸国,重新陷入高通胀低增长的泥潭。

第二轮加息1988-1989,美联储基准利率从6.5%上调至9.8125%。

1988年至1989年期间,美股一直在震荡中走强,加息并没有导致股票大幅下跌,相反在某种意义上投资者的信心增加了。

第三轮加息1992-1995,美联储基准利率从3.25%上调至 6%。

美联储将利率从3%提高至6%,使通胀得到控制,债券收益率大幅下降,将从1990年开始泡沫破裂的日本最后的翻盘时间窗口紧紧的封死,从此日本的股市正式变成了美股的影子,一场经济危机变成了“失落的十年”。此次加息,中国的沪深两市已经开市,加息使得国内市场有一年左右的下行,之后震荡上行。

第四轮加息1998-2000,美联储基准利率从4.75%上调至6.5%。

当时,东南亚诸国还深陷金融危机泥潭,美国又面临欧元挑战和互联网泡沫不断膨胀的威胁,“911 事件”更令经济和股市雪上加霜。在加息收割了东南亚韭菜之后,推动了暴力短期的股市增长(泡沫),也引发了美国股市震荡,并在2000年泡沫破裂。国内的A股市场,受到此次加息影响震荡下行,当然也可能是因为离东南亚比较近。

第五轮加息2003-2006,基准利率从1%上调至5.25%。

这一次的目标是第二次伊拉克战争,标的是用欧元结算的石油。2004年度加息后,美股表现了明显的下行趋势,但美国打赢了伊拉克,股指又开始震荡上升,呈现长期U型趋势。而中国股市反而迎来了最大的涨幅,从1700点涨到了6124点。

第六轮加息2015-2018,基准利率从0%上调至2.5%。

此次加息的目标还是欧元,我们也从中渔利了中东欧的市场。股市方面,美股不降反涨,连续上涨了多年,但是国内股市从2015年6月开始,从5200点附近震荡下行。

美联储加息对美国股市的影响并不像理论上分析的一样,必定下跌,但是对中国股市的影响是至少有一年的调整。美元加息实质上对中国的影响,更多是加速中国资本的外流,而这一切也反应在人民币的汇率上面。好在中国有外汇管制,从个人管控到企业管控都达到非常严格的程度,这在一定程度上与美国加息事件上划了绝缘线,中国政府在汇率问题的底线,将有效阻击美国加息事件的影响。

本周沪深股市震荡 英语翻译

Shenzhen market volatility this week

This week, shenzhen market volatility best-performing 1969.39 points at a rose slightly 0.86% ShenZheng ChengZhi 6711.35 at that point, a slightly 0.76% rise. As the 21st, total market capitalization 44759 billion, circulation, weekend 0.56% increase than Chinese market capitalization 128386 billion last weekend, reduce 0.45%.

急求英语作文 股票的利弊

A stock market can change your life, and makes a giant gnome. There is, Bill Gates and warren buffett, li, LiuYuanSheng near the YangHuiYan, ma, shi yuzhu has, liu fang, because they are from, and increase market share envied virtues.

Second, the stock market is like a big stage drama, daily astounding tragicomedy. Actors don't need more makeup, acting, can fry are the star. Despite the tragedy figures than comedy character, but tragedy than play well.

Third, fry is a noble profession. Contemporary folk yue: first-class professional fry stock, secondary vocational and professional advertising street name. Third-class Don't make the vendors, medicine.hurry fry two play.

Four, the stock market is the spiralling, can make a person to get rich quick. Shake it and courage and strength; luck, Don't shake, money of leaves will fall in your head.

Five, the stock market full of philosophy, the static and dynamic can tell you, pleasure and pain, rich and poor, and the philosophy of life and death. Choose to think, fry with the philosopher.

Six, the market can temper one's will, make the person is strong, even to cut meat will utter on Saturday, as the war with the enemy tortured and never renegade underground workers.

Seven, fry is full of excitement, can smoke in the war and peace through baptism, "television, sound", "was", good KuHao cool!

Eight, buy stocks is bought in the future, who does not wish a better tomorrow? Youth without regrets, the future, I take money betting priceless tomorrow, value!

Nine, fry, the game is wise to have high culture, review and profound theory. Don't believe the fund manager at least, why are eligible to dr ma, natural materials shall bear my Fried.

Ten, the stock market full of imagination. Don't think of things, not dare to think, dare do make money, have imagination can make paper money.

11 and market can widen again obtain employment channels, alleviate employment pressure.

Twelve, fry equates to patriotism. The government from stock financing billions every year. Millions of people have donated money for helping soes into the Treasury, stamp duty.

13 and stock elixir, especially the lonely, indifference, selfish and alzheimer's disease. Want to say goodbye to cancer, please.

14, fry can prevent crime, especially the gambling. Fry stock, PaiJiu kumite mahjong tyre was not interested.

15 and fry QianTiaoWanTiao reason, but ultimately only one: right! Fry

Don't fry 35 reason

A stock is a big dye VAT, and if you don't care who put in hand, you will lose. If want to wash, also won't wash clean. Want to JieShenZiHao, please don't fry.

Second, the stock market risk, it is not only will your riches sinister, lane is bad also forfeits his hide.

Third, market with "black" words are too much. The black box and shady, black, black, black... Howl, if you don't, please don't fry colluding.

Four, the stock market is sometimes tell. False performance, false report, reorganization, are false, Big, big and silly, greed, big, Fry, except as stir-fry air, jiaogechan enpty hands. Stir-fry high price is very beautiful, and performance of listed companies, and total salary 1300 yuan only two cents, you get to repay, you believe or not.

Five, the stock market is not fair. As you see firsthand material retail, hear a information, not even see the first-class service, market even didn't have to sit bench. Fry is asking for SINS.

Six, investors identity meanness. Nine people, people who? Calculate only nine etc. "DengWaiPin" outside, millions of people are not even a association, like into hangxiao that fraud, collective action, the court is not accepted.

Seven, the stock market is the department, you put money machine, others without proving am can carry away, and not dozen receipt. Sing a song is so: please take me to your home, stock, please leave your money. Will money or stocks, please choose!

Eight, fry with gambling, and most easily knoe corruption. Banker like "cheat" perspective, wear contact lens, visible, a large number of small organ, you still dare to fry?

Nine, fry is broken families. A man should not wife, family shares by more and more weak, fry stock is the radiant party.

Ten, exchange, good and evil people mixed up, old crowded, people often not to many places, the easiest to cut the purse.

11 and fry as "religious", GuPingGu superstition, superstition of subjects, such as magic, the man went into a believer.

Twelve, fry, if not, is the lowest level of career. As a modern ShunKouLiu can find work, only the stocks, the unit after class, the stock market had mixed.

13 and fry can make people, all the investors for the old stock depth, no less money hold-op smitten, but didn't earn less wrinkles.

14 and fry diseases, especially hypertension can stroke hysteria, etc. Now, in the public eloquent speaker, but is no longer sell leather is the plaster investors.

15, can be addictive, fry the intense dependence, 1 don't fry, moment seems like three years. Suggest the government offered by compulsory quit shares, to save slip investors.

中文翻译:

一、股市能改变人生,使侏儒变成巨人。远的有巴菲特、比尔·盖茨、李嘉诚、刘元生,近的有杨惠研、马云、史玉柱、刘芳、李予成,他们都因股票市值剧增而受人羡慕景仰。

二、股市像一个大舞台,每日上演着轰轰烈烈的悲喜剧。演员不用化妆,更毋需演技,能炒就是明星。尽管悲剧人物多于喜剧角色,但悲剧总比没有剧好。

三、炒股是一种高尚的职业。当代民谣曰:一流职业炒股票,二流职业做广告,三流职业满街叫。不想做叫卖的摊贩,请来炒两把玩玩。

四、股市是棵摇钱树,能使人快速致富。摇动它,全凭力气勇气加运气;不摇,钞票般的树叶不会掉在你头上。

五、股市充满了哲学,能告诉你静与动、苦与乐、穷与富、生与死的哲理。选股要作思考状,炒股者跟哲学家没两样。

六、股市能磨炼人的意志,使人坚强,即使割肉断臂也不会吭上一声,如同战争年代面对敌人严刑拷打也永不变节的地下工作者。

七、炒股充满了刺激,能在和平年代经受战火与硝烟的洗礼,时而“亮剑”,时而吹响“集结号”,好酷好爽呀!

八、买股票就是买未来,谁不愿明天更美好?青春无悔,未来无价,我拿金钱赌明天,值!

九、炒股是智者的游戏,要有很高的文化修养,股评理论高深莫测。不信,为何基金经理起码要博士硕士才有资格担当,天生我材必炒股。

十、股市充满了想象力。不敢想的事敢想,不敢做的事敢做,有钱能使鬼推磨,有想象能使纸变钱。

十一、股市能拓宽再就业渠道,减轻社会就业压力。

十二、炒股等同于爱国。政府每年能从股市融资数千亿。上亿股民都为国企脱困捐了款,为国库交足了印花税。

十三、股市能治百病,特别是孤独、冷漠、自私和老年痴呆症。想告别病魔,请来炒股。

十四、炒股能预防犯罪,特别是赌博犯罪。炒过股票的人,对打麻将推牌九都不感兴趣。

十五、炒股的理由千条万条,但归根结底只有一条:就是炒股有理!

不炒股的十五条理由

一、股市是个大染缸,谁要是不小心把手放进去,就会失去本色。即使想金盆洗手,也洗不干净。要想洁身自好,请不要炒股。

二、股市有风险,其险恶在于不仅要你钱财,弄不好还会赔上小命。

三、股市同“黑”字有太多的渊源。黑箱、黑幕、黑马、黑庄、黑熊……近墨者黑,倘若你不想同流合污,请不要炒股。

四、股市有时是个假大空的场所。假业绩、假年报、假重组,都是假;大话、大傻、大贪,都是大;炒股如同炒空气,除了交割单,两手空空。股价炒得很高,业绩很漂亮,有上市公司老总年薪1300万元,而只分你两毛钱,得不到业绩回报,信不信由你。

五、股市太不公平。身为散户你看不到一手资料,听不到一线信息,得不到一流服务,甚至看大盘连冷板凳都没得坐。炒股等于自找罪受。

六、股民身份低贱。人分九等,股民算老几?只能算九等之外的“等外品”,上亿股民连个协会都没有,受了像杭萧钢构那样的欺诈,集体诉讼,法院都不受理。

七、股市是部提款机,你把钱放进去,别人无须验明正身就能提走,且不打收条。有首歌是这样唱的:请把我的股带回你的家,请把你的钞票留下。要钞票还是要股,请选择吧!

八、炒股跟赌博没什么两样,且最容易滋生腐败。庄家如同“老千”,戴着隐形透视镜,看得见底牌,掌握着开大开小的机关,你还敢炒吗?

九、炒股是家庭破裂的导火索。男人要股不要妻,家庭观念被越炒越淡,而股票就是那勾魂摄魄的第三者。

十、交易厅人满为患,鱼龙混杂,老人常告诫,不要到人多的地方去,最容易被人掏了钱包。

十一、炒股如同“信教”,迷信股评家,迷信概念,对题材走火如魔,把人变为信徒。

十二、炒股算不上职业,如果算的话,也是最低级的职业。有一时髦顺口溜为证:工作没法找,只把股票炒,单位下了课,股市混着过。

十三、炒股能使人衰老,股民无时无刻不为股票深度套牢魂牵梦萦,钱没少赔,皱纹却没少赚。

十四、炒股能生百病,特别是高血压中风歇斯底里症等。如今能在大庭广众口若悬河的,不再是演说家,除了卖狗皮膏药的便是股民。

十五、炒股能使人上瘾,产生强烈的依赖性,一日不炒,如隔三秋。建议政府开办强制戒股所,以挽救失足股民。

描述股票上涨下降 英语作文

给你 中文与英文两个版本 英文有没有翻译错的 对照你自己整理下

影响股票价格的因素

影响股票价格变动的因素很多,但基本上可分为以下三类:市场内部因素,基本面因素,政策因素。

(1)市场内部因素它主要是指市场的供给和需求,即资金面和筹码面的相对比例,如一定阶段的股市扩容节奏将成为该因素重要部分。

(2)基本面因素包括宏观经济因素和公司内部因素,宏观经济因素主要是能影响市场中股票价格的因素,包括经济增长,经济景气循环,利率,财政收支,货币供应量,物价,国际收支等,公司内部因素主要指公司的财务状况。

(3)政策因素是指足以影响股票价格变动的国内外重大活动以及政府的政策,措施,法令等重大事件,政府的社会经济发展计划,经济政策的变化,新颁布法令和管理条例等均会影响到股价的变动

Affect stock price factor Affect stock price changes by many factors, but basically can is divided into the following categories: market internal factors, fundamental factors, policy factors. (1) the market internal factors, it mainly refers to the market supply and demand, namely financing area and the relative proportion chips, such as certain stages of the stock market expansion rhythm will become the factors important parts. (2) fundamental factors include macroeconomic factors and internal factors, macroeconomic factors that can influence the market is mainly in stock prices of factors, including economic growth, economic cycle, rates, budgetary revenues and expenditures, money supply, price, international payments and so on, our company internal factors mainly refers to the financial position of the company. (3) policy factor is enough to affect stock price changes of important domestic and international activities and government policies, measures and laws to major events, the government's social and economic development plan, economic policy changes, the newly issued decrees and regulations etc all can affect stock price changes

影响股票价格重要经济因素

股票价格是指在证券市场上买卖股票的价格。实际上股票只是一种凭证,本身并没有价格,它之所以具有价格,能够在市场上进行买卖,是因为它可以给持有者带来股息收入。股票内在的价值的大小取决于未来预期实现盈利、贴现率和未来反复的年限。企业未来盈利越多,其现值越大,股票价格也越高,而贴现越高,股票内在价值就越低,股票价格也越低。所以,在西方股票市场上,人们都密切注视着企业未来盈利的状况。但事实上,股票价格的确定十分复杂,因为人们对一个企业未来盈利状况的看法并不全相同,有估计得比较悲观,股票在他们眼里的价值就低些,就要卖出;有的认为企业有发展的希望,股票在他们眼里价值就高些,就要买进。当买者多于卖者时,股票的价格就上升;当买者少于卖者时,股票的价格就下跌。所以,股票的市场价格与内在价格更多的时候表现为一致,投资者往往寻找那些内在价值大于市场的股票。

这样以来,就使股票的市场价格处于不断变化之中。它不仅要受各种经济因素的影响而且要受政治局势、政府政策、投资者心理、报刊杂志的消息以及谣言等社会因素的影响。下面着重分析一下影响股票价格的主要经济因素。

Affect stock price important economic factor Stock price "means in the stock market of stock price. Actually the stock is a certificate, does not itself, it is the price has price in the market, can be traded, because it gives the holder bring dividend income. Stock inner value depends on the size of the realization of the expected future earnings, the discount rate and future repeated the fixed number of year. Enterprise future earnings, the more its present value, the greater the stock price is higher also, and discount, the higher the stock intrinsic value will be lower, and stock prices also lower. So, in the west, people in the stock market is closely watched enterprise future earnings situation. But in fact, the determination of stock price is quite complex, because people to an enterprise future profitability opinion is not all the same, has an estimated more pessimistic, shares in their eyes the value of some lower, will sell, Some think the enterprise have the hope for the development of stock in their eyes, value as some taller, will buy. When buyers than sellers, stock prices went up, When buyers less than sellers, stock prices will fall. So, the price of stock market and inner price more of the time performance is consistent, investors tend to seek those intrinsic value than market shares. Since such, you will make the price of stock market is constantly changing. It should not only affected by various factors that influence the economic and political situation, by government policy, investor psychological, magazine, newspaper, news and rumors of social factors influence. Below are emphatically analyzed the influence of stock prices main economic factors.

一、股息

投资者之所以购买股票,是因为它能带来不低于存款利息的股息。股份公司发行股票的数量,不是取决于它的实际资本拥有量,而是取决于股息的派发量。股息越高,购者越踊跃,股票的价格也越高。但是,股息的增加又取决于企业收益的增长。如果企业发行股票的数量增加了,而增资后的利润却为同步增长,股息将无法维持原有水平,必然要减少,股票价格也会随之下降。欧美国家的一些企业,为了不断发展业务,使企业收益日益增长,把公司的净利润大部分或全部留下,以扩大资本积累,用于生产和经营,只发放少量股息或不发放股息,并且,国家在税收制度上也积极整套这样伏。由于企业的股票以即使不发或少发股息,这种股票对投资者也仍有很大的吸引力。

A, dividends Investors had to buy shares, because it can bring not less than deposit interest of dividends. The number of shares of the company shares, not depend on its actual capital ownership, but on the dividend amount distributed. The higher the dividend, buy more enthusiastically, the price of a stock is higher also. But, dividend increase depends on enterprise earnings growth. If the number of shares issued by companies increased, and add endowment hind profits but for increased dividends will not be maintained original level, it's necessary to reduce, stock price also is met subsequently decline. Some of the enterprise, European and American countries for continuous development business, make the business income increasing, the company's net income all or most left, in order to enlarge capital accumulation, for the production and operation, only a few dividends or not issue stated dividend, and national taxation system also actively package of such volts. Because enterprise stock to even not hair or less dividend, stock to send the investor is still very attractive.

二、金融资本和税收

股份公司常常向银行借款,随着借款额的增多,银行对企业的控制也就逐渐加强并取得了相当的发言权。在企业收益减少的情况下,虽然他们希望能够稳定股息,但银行为了自身的安全,会支持企业少发或停发股息,因而影响了股票的价格。税收对投资者影响也很大,投资者购买股票是为了增加收益,如果国家对某些营利事业在税收给以优惠,那么就能使这些企业的税后利润相对增加,使它们的股票升值。

Second, financial capital and revenue Joint-stock company often borrow from Banks, with the loan sum increase, bank of enterprise control also gradually strengthened and made it quite claims. In the business income decrease case, although they hope to stabilize dividend, but bank for his own safety, will support enterprises or hair hair less dividend, thus affecting the stock prices. Tax on investors are significantly affected, investors buy stocks for increases the income, if the country for some profit-seeking enterprise in tax give preferential, then can make the enterprise's after-tax profits relative increase, make their stock appreciation.

三、经济周期

在经济繁荣时期,企业盈利多,股息高,股票则猛涨;在经济危机时期,企业生产萎缩,股息下降,股价则猛跌;在经济萧条时期,股价渐有转机;在进入复苏时期后,股价又开始上涨。所以,资本主义股票价格的变动,一般是与资本主义经济周期相适应的。

Third, economic cycle In the economic boom, corporate profits, dividends, stock is soaring high, In the economic crisis periods, enterprise production decline, stock dividend atrophy, is tumbled, In the economic depression, share price gradually a swift, Before entering the recovery period, prices began to rise. So, capitalism stock price movements are generally capitalism and adapt to the economic cycle.

四、通货膨胀

社会货币供应量的增减是影响股票价格的原因之一。通常,货币供应量增加,社会一部分闲置资金就会投向证券交易,从而抬高股价;相反,货币供应量减少,社会购买力降低,股价也必然下跌。由货币供应量不断增大而导致的通货膨胀,在一定限度内对生产有刺激作用,因为它能促进企业销售收入和股票投资名义收益的增加,所以在银行利率不随物价同比例上升的条件下,人们为了保值,将不再热心于存款,而转向投资股票,使股票价格再提高。但是,如果通货膨胀上升过猛,甚至了超过两位数,那么将造成人们实际收入下降和市场需求不足,加剧生产过剩,导致经济危机,使股票价格下跌。

Four, inflation Social money supply and decrease of stock price is to influence factor. Normally, the money supply increase, and the society of idle fund will to securities trading and thus increase share, Instead, money supply decrease, social purchasing power is reduced, stocks also inevitable decline. By increasing the money supply to inflation, within limits to produce a stimulating effect, because it can promote the enterprise sales revenue and stock investment income increase, so the name in bank interest rates are with the price with ratio rose, under the condition of people to value, will no longer eager to deposit, and turned to invest in stocks and shares to raise price again. But, if inflation rising vastly, even more than two digits, so will cause people to real income decrease and market demand, aggravate overproduction, cause economic crisis, make share prices.

五、贴现率与利率

贴现是银行放款的一种形式,贴现率与存款利率有密切的联系。存款率越高,贴现率也越高。由于股票的价格与企业未来预期盈利成正比,与贴现率(利息率)成反比,所以贴现率(或利息率)的提高,会导致股票价格的下降。但西方国家往往在银行利率上升时,股票市场依然活跌,原因是投资者常常在两者之间选择:银行存款风险小,利率高,收入稳定,但不灵活,资金被固定在一段时间内不能挪作他用,并且通俗读物以抵销通货膨胀造成的损失。而股票可以买卖,较为灵活,风险虽大,但碰上好运,可获大利。所以,在银行利率提高的情况下,仍然有一些具有冒险精神的投资者热心于股票交易。

Five, the discount rate and interest rate Discount is a form of bank lending, the discount rate and deposit rates are closely linked. Deposit rate is high, the discount rate is higher also. Because the price of the stock and the enterprise the expected future earnings is proportional to the discount rate (interest) is inversely proportional to the discount rate (or interest rates, so the promotion of, will lead to stock price falls. But in western countries have often bank interest rate rises, the stock market is still alive, reason is that investors often dropped in between choice: bank deposit small risk, higher interest rates, the income is stable, but not agile, the fund was fixed in a period of time inside cannot be used for other purposes, and popular literature to offset the loss caused by inflation. Stock can be bought, more flexible, though large, but the risk can be awarded with good luck, Italy. So, in the case of higher bank interest rate, there are still some adventurous investors keen on stock trading.

六、科技发明

在产业结构调整和转移时期,新产品的开发显得越来越重要,股价也会受到它们的强烈冲击。

新产品从开发完成至股价下跌这段时间,可分成三个阶段:

1、当消息传出以后,成了热门话题,此时股价自然会上扬,尤其一旦有人用投机手段,则更容易暴涨。

2、已经成为人们争相投资的对象,而这种新发明要普及化,需要很长时间,届时还销不出去的话,股价便会下跌。

3、假如新发明能够提高公司的业绩和利润率,股价会上涨,若没有预期效果,则跌幅很大。

因此,股票交易者必然充分注意这种规律,牢牢掌握股价的主动权。

Six, technological invention In the adjustment of industrial structure and the transfer of The Times, new product development is becoming more and more important, share price is also under their strong impact. New products from development completed to share fall this period of time, can be divided into three stages: 1 and when the news spread later, became a hot topic, when share prices will naturally rise, especially when someone with speculative method, then more easily boom. 2, has become people rushed to the object, but this kind of investment to popularize new invention, takes a long time, when we pin not go out, share price will decrease. 3, if new invention can improve the company's sales and profitability, price will rise, if do not have expected effect, then drop greatly. Therefore, stock traders must full attention to such laws, grip shares of the initiative.

股市对经济造成了什么影响?

楼上翻译的让我吐血了...

我的:

What is the impact of stock market on the economy?

impact:影响, A's impact on B : a对b的影响

stock market股票证卷市场

economy经济

national economy国民经济.

楼下居然说impact比较严重?好吧.给你们点证据.请在google搜索: the impact of FDI on wage inequality. 外资对工资不平等的影响.一大堆!句子结构是一样的,只是换了个次.influence根本不能用作名词,楼下的都错了.如果用动词,怎么说也是单数第3人称,所以你们更错了.再说,即便用动词,也应该是经济被stock影响,所以你们用influence的方式都不对..艾...

缩表对股市的影响

缩表或将推动美国长期利率上行,对美股或存在一定短期冲击。而此轮缩表对于中国跨境资本流动、国内货币政策以及国内债券利率的影响有限,在我国货币宽松的背景下,预计国内利率或将继续震荡下行。

【拓展资料】

缩表,也称为量化紧缩,是指缩减美联储资产负债表规模,是支持美联储回归正常化货币政策的数量型工具。美联储表示量化紧缩的目的是缩小资产负债表的规模使相关的准备金余额减少到与货币市场和货币政策更为正常的运作相一致的水平。缩表分为主动与被动两种方式,1月FOMC会议发布的“缩表原则”公告明确表示预计通过调整再投资的方式,可预测的缩减资产负债表,因此预计此次将继续采用上一轮渐进、可预测地被动缩表的方式。一、美联储缩表的必然性

1.加息后,短期利率向长期利率传导或失效,需要缩表提升长端利率避免收益率曲线倒挂。

2.需要缩表以避免大规模超额存款准备金的上升导致通胀的风险。第三,需要通过缩表大规模减少超额存款准备金以增加短期利率的可控性。此外,采用ON RRP作为利率走廊的下限不具有可持续性,因此需要缩表逆转超额准备金率作为上限的非常态化状态。第四,美联储因持有证券的久期缺口需要缩表进行缩减,以减少利率风险带来的损失。

二、美联储缩表的背景

对于此轮背景,鲍威尔在1月议息会议后表示相比于上一轮缩表前,目前美联储资产负债表规模更大,久期更短,经济更强,通胀水平更高,所以美联储可能会更早、更快的进行缩表。而资产负债表规模远远大于美联储所需要的规模,所以需要进行大规模的缩表。同时1月议息会议发布的“缩表原则”公告表示预计加息过程中开始缩表,并且缩表计划以调整再投资金额方式进行。目前就业市场稳步向好,经济复苏较为坎坷,但经济增长动力较强,通胀风险仍持续上行。基于此,预计此轮缩表将以被动方式进行,缩表规模较大,缩表或于今年年中开始。

三、双紧缩货币政策对美国的影响

上一轮缩表沟通较为充分,对市场冲击较小,根据研究缩表的紧缩力度相当于加息一次。缩表叠加加息导致流动性短期紧张加剧,但美联储保持了缩表规模对于市场变化的敏感性。上一轮缩表有效的推动长期利率上行,对股市影响为短期冲击,对房市影响较为深远。缩表通过推动美债长端利率快速提升美国与其他国家的利差,吸引资金回流美国。由于过剩的流动性停留于银行间系统,因此缩表对实体经济的影响较小。

有话要说...